Wednesday, October 24, 2012

STI Sideway To Bearish Tone


US market had a bad closing last night.  Dow plunged by 243 points.  It seems like we are seeing more volatility recently.  With earnings starting to disappoint investors it is likely that the volatility will continue.

For Singapore, the STI has held pretty well.  Last Friday’s 200 points drop in Dow Jones Industrial Average did not bring about a sell down on Monday.  It will definitely be a gap down today.   So where is the support?

The first support is at 2977 the pivot low made on 6 Sep.  The next support will be at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 2938.  If 2938 gives way, the index is likely to test the 61.8% level of 2846

MACD is bearish at the moment.  Having tried to make a bullish crossover, the MACD histogram looks to be turning down.  Such pattern failure usually brings in the sellers.

One slightly positive indicator is the ADX indicator.  It is not shouting a sell signal right now with ADX below 20 level indicating that there is no strong trend pattern at the moment.  The +DI looks set to go below –DI indicator suggesting that a more negative tone is forming.

Monday, October 22, 2012

The New Depression


Credit growth facilitates economic growth.  When credit is expanding consumers can now borrow more and invest more.  Increasing consumption and investment creates jobs and boost income and profits.  Credit expansion also causes asset prices to go up.  These assets include stocks and property.  As net worth of the public goes up the asset owners can now use what they own as collateral to borrow more.  This is a cycle that feeds on itself and leads to increase spending, investment, job creation and wealth.  So long as the credit keeps expanding, the party can continue.

Between mid 2008 and first quarter of 2011, the federal government expanded its debt by $4.4 trillion.  This helps to keep the economy from breaking down when private sector became incapable of repaying its debt.   Before the crisis that erupt in 2008, every time the economy slowed or crisis erupted, the Fed will take steps to encourage credit expansion and every time the economy reaccelerated.  In actual fact, all the steps that the Fed has taken simply caused the credit bubble to expand.  Eventually, this credit bubble will have to give way and the consequences will have to be bear by future generation.  The past qualitative measures put forth by the Fed have not brought much improvement in the economy.  And the austerity measures that has or in the process of being implemented in various parts of the world may be the catalyst that causes the credit bubble to burst.  When credit stops expanding, we will see a greater slow down and may eventually see the natural financial depression that should have happened back in 2008 if the Fed did not intervene with its easing measures.



For those that want to learn more about how the current measures are impacting the economy and the likely outcome of such measures, you can read up on the "The New Depression", a book written by Richard Duncan.  It gives a clear explanation of how Fiat money has impacted the economy and changed the way the world economy works.  

Sunday, January 15, 2012

STI In Sideway Trend


Singapore stock market started the year on a positive note.  The Straits Times Index started at 2646 on the first day of trading and is now at 2791, sitting slightly above its 50 day and 100 day moving averages.   

The current technical charts do not paint a picture of sustained rally at this point.  The 14 day ADX is well below the 20 level mark, indicating that there is no strong trend at this stage both to the upside or downside.  The index is likely to move sideways and the resistance and support is at 2800 and 2640 respectively.

The 2 day RSI is moving towards overbought territory suggesting that we will see some pullback next week.  Another point to note that there the recent rally is made on slightly lower volume.  This shows that market conviction is not there and it supports the pullback scenario next week.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Time Based Index Trading Method


There is a market saying that one should sell in May and go away.   This year, this theory proved to be a good advice.  Let’s do a study on STI index to see how this strategy pans out.   For simplicity, let’s assume the following trading rules:

a.  Long Trading Rules:
  1. Buy STI index in the beginning of Oct every year.
  2. Set a stop loss of 10%
  3. If stop loss is not triggered by May next year, close the long position

b.  Short Trading Rules:
  1. Short STI index in the beginning of May every year.
  2. Set a stop loss of 10%
  3. If stop loss is not triggered by Oct in the same year, close the short position

So how is our position if we follow these rules?  The table below shows the trading result:

Position
Entry Date
Entry Price
Exit Date
Exit Price
% Change
Short
5/2/1990
1458.80
10/1/1990
1103.40
24.36
Long
10/1/1990
1103.40
5/2/1991
1557.20
41.13
Short
5/2/1991
1557.20
10/2/1991
1357.00
12.86
Long
10/2/1991
1357.00
5/4/1992
1499.00
10.46
Short
5/4/1992
1499.00
10/1/1992
1351.00
9.87
Long
10/1/1992
1351.00
5/3/1993
1783.60
32.02
Short
5/3/1993
1783.60
8/19/1993
1961.96
-10
Long
10/1/1993
2015.30
5/3/1994
2296.50
13.95
Short
5/3/1994
2296.50
10/3/1994
2334.40
-1.65
Long
10/3/1994
2334.40
12/9/1994
2100.96
-10
Short
5/2/1995
2070.10
10/2/1995
2120.00
-2.41
Long
10/2/1995
2120.00
5/2/1996
2406.20
13.5
Short
5/2/1996
2406.20
10/1/1996
2175.70
9.58
Long
10/1/1996
2175.70
5/2/1997
2004.30
-7.88
Short
5/2/1997
2004.30
10/1/1997
1954.80
2.47
Long
10/1/1997
1954.80
10/21/1997
1759.32
-10
Short
5/4/1998
1494.98
10/1/1998
938.08
37.25
Long
10/1/1998
938.08
5/3/1999
1892.43
101.73
Short
5/3/1999
1892.43
6/21/1999
2081.67
-10
Long
10/1/1999
2021.14
5/2/2000
2172.01
7.46
Short
5/2/2000
2172.01
10/2/2000
1970.93
9.26
Long
10/2/2000
1970.93
3/15/2001
1761.14
-10.64
Short
5/2/2001
1735.75
10/1/2001
1329.54
23.4
Long
10/1/2001
1329.54
5/2/2002
1737.54
30.69
Short
5/2/2002
1737.54
10/1/2002
1345.69
22.55
Long
10/1/2002
1345.69
3/11/2003
1209.15
-10.15
Short
5/2/2003
1278.53
6/5/2003
1415.91
-10.75
Long
10/1/2003
1621.06
5/3/2004
1841.39
13.59
Short
5/3/2004
1841.39
10/1/2004
1986.96
-7.91
Long
10/1/2004
1986.96
5/3/2005
2146.04
8.01
Short
5/3/2005
2146.04
7/29/2005
2360.64
-10
Long
10/3/2005
2302.03
5/2/2006
2613.87
13.55
Short
5/2/2006
2613.87
10/2/2006
2571.45
1.62
Long
10/2/2006
2571.45
5/2/2007
3395.57
32.05
Short
5/2/2007
3395.57
10/1/2007
3735.13
-10
Long
10/1/2007
3734.94
11/20/2007
3350.69
-10.29
Short
5/1/2008
3147.79
10/1/2008
2358.91
25.06
Long
10/1/2008
2358.91
10/8/2008
2123.02
-10
Short
5/1/2009
1920.28
5/6/2009
2112.31
-10
Long
10/1/2009
2672.57
5/3/2010
2974.61
11.3
Short
5/3/2010
2974.61
10/1/2010
3097.63
-4.14
Long
10/1/2010
3097.63
5/2/2011
3179.86
2.65
Short
5/2/2011
3179.86
10/3/2011
2675.16
15.87
Long
10/3/2011
2675.16
Open
Open
2.06

For long positions, there were 15 winners out of 22 trades.  For short positions, there were 12 winners out of 22 trades.  So it seems that trading the long positions from Oct to May and short positions from May to Oct gives trader a slight winning advantage.  Let’s see how this system will perform in the next 6 month.   Happy trading!

STI Sideway To Bearish Tone

US market had a bad closing last night.  Dow plunged by 243 points.  It seems like we are seeing more volatility recently.  With earnings...