Friday, December 31, 2010

EURUSD Warning Signs


EURUSD is making a comeback for the past few trading days. It has risen above its 20 day moving average which is a positive indication. The MACD indicator is still above its signal line showing that bulls still have the upper hand. But we should not lose sight of the big picture. If you look at the down swing from 25 Nov 2009 to 7 Jun 2010, the currency pair traded from its low in Jun 2010 to re-trace around 61.8% of the complete down swing. This coincides with the Fibnoacci Retracement rule and it still shows that the long term trend for this currency is still to the downside. However, we cannot ignore the fact that the currency is making higher lows and higher highs for the past few months. The danger is for the currency pair to fall below 1.30 level. This will violate the higher high and higher pattern. The 2 day RSI is approaching overbought levels and we will likely see the price testing its 20 day moving average in the next few trading days.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

STI Trend Score System


I have covered this method in my previous posting.  I am repeating it here for readers that have missed out on this simple indicator that can be used for trading index ETF like STI ETF.

This is a trend indicator that was derived by by Tuschar Chande. It is a method of rating the trend by comparing the current day’s close to the close x days ago.

If today’s close is greater than close x days ago, score = 1

If today’s close is less than the close x+1 days ago, score = -1

Tuschar Chande suggested comparing the close to the closes from 11 to 20 days ago.

Therefore,

Trendscore = 10 day sum of the scores from days 11 to 20.

The trend score for this case will oscillate between +10 to -10.

The metastock formula is given below:
If(C>=Ref(C,-11),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-12),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-13),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-14),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-15),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-16),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-17),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-18),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-19),1,-1)+
If(C>=Ref(C,-20),1,-1)

Let’s say that we buy 1 lot of Straits Times Index (STI) when the Trendscore reaches +10 and exit the trade when Trendscore becomes negative.

The trade record is given below:


PositionEntry DateEntry PriceExit DateExit Price% Change
Long12-Jan-072995.351-Mar-073133.884.62
Long15-Feb-073222.981-Mar-073133.88-2.76
Long28-Mar-073224.5511-Jun-073530.389.48
Long4-May-073477.911-Jun-073530.381.51
Long13-Jun-073530.1227-Jun-073513.5-0.47
Long15-Jun-073601.0527-Jun-073513.5-2.43
Long16-Jul-073679.9730-Jul-073467.36-5.78
Long23-Jul-073627.9730-Jul-073467.36-4.43
Long6-Sep-073374.0123-Oct-073670.218.78
Long11-Dec-073583.3218-Dec-073301.42-7.87
Long2-Apr-083046.5423-May-083160.863.75
Long23-Apr-083187.2323-May-083160.86-0.83
Long28-Apr-083189.223-May-083160.86-0.89
Long5-May-083236.123-May-083160.86-2.33
Long14-May-083203.4223-May-083160.86-1.33
Long16-May-083207.4323-May-083160.86-1.45
Long11-Dec-081821.713-Jan-091776.25-2.49
Long17-Dec-081782.0913-Jan-091776.25-0.33
Long26-Dec-081736.9913-Jan-091776.252.26
Long5-Jan-091829.7113-Jan-091776.25-2.92
Long24-Mar-091664.0819-Jun-092237.234.44
Long24-Apr-091859.9819-Jun-092237.220.28
Long1-May-091920.2819-Jun-092237.216.5
Long28-May-092306.0819-Jun-092237.2-2.99
Long16-Jul-092389.4219-Aug-092567.727.46
Long9-Sep-092660.915-Oct-092604.53-2.12
Long17-Sep-092674.425-Oct-092604.53-2.61
Long15-Oct-092708.4829-Oct-092648.98-2.2
Long12-Nov-092740.4322-Jan-102850.984.03
Long3-Dec-092796.3422-Jan-102850.981.95
Long14-Dec-092800.7522-Jan-102850.981.79
Long23-Dec-092823.8222-Jan-102850.980.96
Long24-Feb-102782.5529-Apr-102932.045.37
Long2-Mar-102774.0629-Apr-102932.045.69
Long9-Mar-102834.5729-Apr-102932.043.44
Long5-Apr-102943.0229-Apr-102932.04-0.37
Long26-Apr-102988.4929-Apr-102932.04-1.89
Long17-Jun-102846.9413-Aug-102927.042.81
Long9-Jul-102897.1513-Aug-102927.041.03
Long6-Sep-103011.0328-Oct-103124.383.76
Long3-Nov-103205.2824-Nov-103126.3-2.46

The net gain from 2007 to 2010 is around 88% (excluding transaction costs).

Thursday, December 9, 2010

How To Identify Strong Or Weak Stocks


In momentum trading, traders pick the strong stocks to go long and weak stocks to go short.    However the key question here is how do you determine if a stock is a strong stock or a weak stock?  

You should be able to tell from the price chart if a stock is looking strong.  For example if a stock keeps making higher low and higher high, it falls into the strong stock category.  By the same token, if the stock is making lower high and lower low, it is considered a weak stock.

A more mathematical method is to compute the distance between the current closing price and its 52 week’s price high and price low to determine which is the stronger and weaker stock trading in the market. 

The formula is as follows:

            Strength = (52 week high – closing price)/52 week high
           
            Weakness = (closing price – 52 week low)/52 week low

If you compute the Strength and Weakness value for every stock trading in the exchange and sort it based on its Strength and Weakness, you get a list of strong and weak stocks respectively.

Based on the 7 Dec 2010 closing price of the 500 stocks in the S&P500 index, the list of strong stocks is:
Symbol StrengthCloseSectorIndustry
CVX0.00380923786.30000305Basic materialsMajor integrated oil and gas
IFF0.00594597955.16999817Basic materialsSpecialty chemicals
PX0.00843165594.08000183Basic materialsSynthetics
PPG0.00666750180.44999695ConglomeratesConglomerates
HRL0.00359282149.91999817Consumer goodsMeat products
MKC0.00809718946.54999924Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CCE0.00890780625.59000015Consumer goodsBeverages - soft drinks
XRX0.00918969211.85999966Consumer goodsBusiness equipment
AMP0.00690158154.68000031Financial Asset management
AON0.00772201143.68999863Financial Insurance brokers
MMC0.00897195426.51000023Financial Insurance brokers
TMK0.00924573761.08000183Financial Life insurance
BIIB0.00297128167.11000061HealthcareBiotech
KG0.00421055614.18999958HealthcareDrug manfacturers - others
BDX0.00598516581.37999725HealthcareMedical instruments and supplies
ROP0.00273446276.58999634Industrial goodsIndustrial equipment and components
PLL0.00717070848.45999908Industrial goodsDiversified machinery
SNA0.00765670155.72999954Industrial goodsSmall tools and accessories
ROK0.00840940669.56999969Industrial goodsIndustrial electrical equipment
FISV0.00170158758.66999817ServicesBusiness services
CHRW0.00416937776.43000031ServicesAir delivery and freight services
COST0.00599483669.63999939ServicesDiscount variety stores
EXPD0.00635594356.27999878ServicesAir delivery and freight services
MCD0.00741297480.33999634ServicesRestaurants
ESRX0.00822971454.22999954ServicesManagement services
AKAM0.00496415654.11999893TechnologyInternet information providers
ADI0.00682052337.86000061TechnologySemiconductor - integrated circuits
TXN0.00683708533.40999985TechnologySemiconductor - broad line
CPWR0.00702369811.31000042TechnologyApplication software
A0.00791972637.58000183TechnologyScientific and technical instruments


The list of weak stocks is:


Symbol WeaknessCloseSectorIndustry
EOG0.0870865592.70999908Basic materialsIndependent oil and gas
CLX0.08050809562.18000031ConglomeratesConglomerates
DF0.0364656037.389999866Consumer goodsDairy products
K0.05135315148.90999985Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CAG0.05735973522.01000023Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
GIS0.06624477435.04000092Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CL0.07645490478.16999817Consumer goodsPersonal products
CPB0.07965226133.90000153Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
BAC0.06146789911.56999969Financial Regional - Mid atlantic banks
HCBK0.06945187511.97999954Financial Savings and loans
PBCT0.07049185413.06000042Financial Savings and loans
FHN0.08261807810.09000015Financial Regional - Southeast banks
AMGN0.05710312153.13000107HealthcareBiotechnology
ISRG0.059337495260.6499939HealthcareMedical appliances and equipment
ABT0.06028401846.88999939HealthcareDrug manufacturers - major
THC0.0765305384.21999979HealthcareHospitals
ZMH0.08644910250.27000046HealthcareMedical appliances and equipment
LLY0.0943565734.11000061HealthcareDrug manufacturers - major
LMT0.03704691969.44999695Industrial goodsAerospace/Defense products and services
PHM0.0831973486.639999866Industrial goodsResidential construction
BIG0.00246564628.45999908ServicesDiscount variety stores
SVU0.0158536738.329999924ServicesGrocery stores
SAI0.06724949615.86999989ServicesTechnical services
RSH0.08426838118.94000053ServicesElectronics stores
KR0.09389048220.68000031ServicesGrocery stores
CSCO0.02052628419.38999939TechnologyNetworking and communication devices
NRG018.85000038UtilitiesElectric Utilities
CEG0.01125598128.29999924UtilitiesElectric Utilities
ETR0.02268771970.41000366UtilitiesElectric Utilities
FE0.09086452735.56000137UtilitiesElectric Utilities

You can derive some basic information based on the list.  For example, the Utilities sector is not doing well whereas Technology sector has more strong stocks.  

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Investment Madness

We are all prone to having psychological preconceptions or biases that make us behave in certain ways.  These biases influence how we assimilate the information we come in contact with on a daily basis.  They also have an impact on how we utilize that information to make decisions.

Our very own psychological biases have an impact on our investment decisions and affect our attempts at building wealth.

Psychological Bias
Effect on Investment Behavior
Consequence
Overconfidence
Trade too much.  Take too much risk and fail to diversify
Pay too much in commissions and taxes.  Susceptible to big losses

Attachment
Become emotionally attached to a security and see it through rose-colored glasses

Susceptible to big losses
Endowment
Want to keep the securities received
Not achieving a match between your investment goals and your investments

Status Quo
Hold back on changing your portfolio
Failure to adjust asset allocation and begin contributing to retirement plan

Seeking Pride
Sell winners too soon
Lower return and higher taxes

Avoiding Regret
Hold losers too long
Lower return and higher taxes

House Money
Take too much risk after winning

Susceptible to big losses
Snake Bit
Take too little risk after losing
Lose chance for higher return in the long term

Get Even
Take too much risk trying to get break even

Susceptible to big losses
Social Validation
Feel that it must be good if others are investing in the security
Participate in price bubble which ultimately causes you to buy high and sell low
Mental Accounting
Fail to diversify
Not receiving the highest return possible for the level of risk taken

Cognitive Dissonance
Ignore information that conflicts with prior beliefs and decisions

Reduces your ability to evaluate and monitor your investment choices
Representativeness
Think things that seem similar must be alike.  So a good company must be a good investment

Purchase overpriced stocks
Familiarity
Think companies that you know seem better and safer
Failure to diversify and put too much faith in the company in which you work


If you want to read more regarding human psychology and how it affects our trading and investment, please read the book “Investment Madness How Psychology Affects Your Investing and What to Do About It” by JOHN R NOFSINGER.


Sunday, November 14, 2010

Smoothing The Bollinger %b

Bollinger bands were developed by John Bollinger and it consists of 3 lines derived from the moving average and standard deviation of closing price.

Sylvain Vervoort, a Belgium based retired electronics engineer who has been using technical analysis for more than 30 years, came out with an indicator SVE_BB that takes the Bollinger band and converts it to an oscillator that range between 0 and 100 (with overshoots).

The Metastock formula for SVE_BB is

period:= Input("%b period:",1,100,18);
TeAv:= Input("Tema average:",1,30,8);
haOpen:= (Ref((O+H+L+C)/4,-1) + PREV)/2;
haC:= ((O+H+L+C)/4+haOpen+Max(H,haOpen)+Min(L,haOpen))/4;
TMA1:= Tema(haC,TeAv);
TMA2:= Tema(TMA1,TeAv);
Diff:= TMA1-TMA2;
ZLHA:= TMA1+Diff;
percb:= (Tema(ZLHA,TeAv)+2*Stdev(Tema(ZLHA,TeAv),period)-Mov(Tema(ZLHA,TeAv),period,WEIGHTED))/(4*Stdev(Tema(ZLHA,TeAv),period))*100;
percb;

This indicator is often a leading indicator with smooth and clear turning points.  Bullish and bearish divergent signal is helpful in identifying entry and exit points. 

Let’s take a look when this indicator is applied to Sembcorp Marine.


Sembcorp Marine broke out of the Bollinger band in early October and it has managed to blow past the $5 mark to reach a high of  $5.20 on 10 Nov.   The stock has pulled back slightly and it looks set to test the 20 day moving average which is at $4.70 level.

The SVE_BB indicator did not make a new high together with the up swing.  This is a warning signal.  If this divergence coincides with a break of support level, it will be a strong indication of further down moves. 

The stock has to stay above the 20 day moving average.  If it breaks this line, the next support line is at $4.50.  

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Two-bar Breakout System (2BB)

The 2 bar breakout system is designed to capture short term trends by going long or short depending on the pattern formed by the 2 most recent price bars.  The essence of this method is to look for reversal of the immediate directional momentum.

The rules of this method are:

Long trades

Enter:
  1. Today’s low is less than the previous day low
  2. Today’s high is less than the previous day high
  3. Today’s close is less than the open
  4. Go long at the next trading bar if the price goes above today’s high + 1 tick
Exit:
  1. Use a trailing stop at previous day’s low
  
Short trades

Enter:
  1. Today’s low is greater than the previous day low
  2. Today’s high is greater than the previous day high
  3. Today’s close is greater than the open
  4. Go short at the next trading bar if the price goes below today’s low - 1 tick
Exit:
  1. Use a trailing stop at previous day’s high

To see this method in action, let’s try it out on EURUSD currency pair. 

For long trades, the trading record is as such:

Position
Entry Date
Entry Price
Exit Date
Exit Price
Bars Held
Profit/Loss (pips)
Long
5/7/2009
1.3374
5/11/2009
1.3615
3
241
Long
5/18/2009
1.3486
5/25/2009
1.4016
6
530
Long
6/23/2009
1.3936
6/29/2009
1.4044
5
108
Long
7/9/2009
1.3938
7/13/2009
1.3941
3
3
Long
8/18/2009
1.4171
8/24/2009
1.4329
5
158
Long
8/27/2009
1.4349
8/31/2009
1.4281
3
-68
Long
9/30/2009
1.4646
10/1/2009
1.4574
1
-72
Long
10/8/2009
1.4737
10/9/2009
1.4703
1
-34
Long
10/29/2009
1.4841
11/1/2009
1.471
2
-131
Long
11/2/2009
1.4742
11/3/2009
1.4702
1
-40
Long
11/4/2009
1.4811
11/9/2009
1.486
4
49
Long
12/23/2009
1.4332
12/28/2009
1.4356
3
24
Long
12/31/2009
1.4361
1/4/2010
1.4315
2
-46
Long
1/13/2010
1.4546
1/14/2010
1.4454
1
-92
Long
1/22/2010
1.4144
1/25/2010
1.4147
2
3
Long
2/26/2010
1.3571
3/1/2010
1.3614
2
43
Long
3/10/2010
1.3636
3/15/2010
1.3758
4
122
Long
3/16/2010
1.3774
3/18/2010
1.3724
2
-50
Long
3/26/2010
1.3388
3/29/2010
1.3434
2
46
Long
5/27/2010
1.2345
5/30/2010
1.2267
2
-78
Long
6/7/2010
1.1966
6/17/2010
1.2252
9
286
Long
6/30/2010
1.2291
7/5/2010
1.2542
4
251
Long
7/6/2010
1.2558
7/9/2010
1.2623
3
65
Long
7/13/2010
1.2646
7/19/2010
1.2888
5
242
Long
7/22/2010
1.2914
8/4/2010
1.3145
11
231
Long
10/5/2010
1.3785
10/8/2010
1.3855
3
70
Long
10/28/2010
1.3879
11/1/2010
1.3955
3
76











Total

1937


The method generated 27 long signals with 18 profitable trades giving a total return of 1937 pips.    

STI Sideway To Bearish Tone

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