Sunday, November 20, 2011

Time Based Index Trading Method


There is a market saying that one should sell in May and go away.   This year, this theory proved to be a good advice.  Let’s do a study on STI index to see how this strategy pans out.   For simplicity, let’s assume the following trading rules:

a.  Long Trading Rules:
  1. Buy STI index in the beginning of Oct every year.
  2. Set a stop loss of 10%
  3. If stop loss is not triggered by May next year, close the long position

b.  Short Trading Rules:
  1. Short STI index in the beginning of May every year.
  2. Set a stop loss of 10%
  3. If stop loss is not triggered by Oct in the same year, close the short position

So how is our position if we follow these rules?  The table below shows the trading result:

Position
Entry Date
Entry Price
Exit Date
Exit Price
% Change
Short
5/2/1990
1458.80
10/1/1990
1103.40
24.36
Long
10/1/1990
1103.40
5/2/1991
1557.20
41.13
Short
5/2/1991
1557.20
10/2/1991
1357.00
12.86
Long
10/2/1991
1357.00
5/4/1992
1499.00
10.46
Short
5/4/1992
1499.00
10/1/1992
1351.00
9.87
Long
10/1/1992
1351.00
5/3/1993
1783.60
32.02
Short
5/3/1993
1783.60
8/19/1993
1961.96
-10
Long
10/1/1993
2015.30
5/3/1994
2296.50
13.95
Short
5/3/1994
2296.50
10/3/1994
2334.40
-1.65
Long
10/3/1994
2334.40
12/9/1994
2100.96
-10
Short
5/2/1995
2070.10
10/2/1995
2120.00
-2.41
Long
10/2/1995
2120.00
5/2/1996
2406.20
13.5
Short
5/2/1996
2406.20
10/1/1996
2175.70
9.58
Long
10/1/1996
2175.70
5/2/1997
2004.30
-7.88
Short
5/2/1997
2004.30
10/1/1997
1954.80
2.47
Long
10/1/1997
1954.80
10/21/1997
1759.32
-10
Short
5/4/1998
1494.98
10/1/1998
938.08
37.25
Long
10/1/1998
938.08
5/3/1999
1892.43
101.73
Short
5/3/1999
1892.43
6/21/1999
2081.67
-10
Long
10/1/1999
2021.14
5/2/2000
2172.01
7.46
Short
5/2/2000
2172.01
10/2/2000
1970.93
9.26
Long
10/2/2000
1970.93
3/15/2001
1761.14
-10.64
Short
5/2/2001
1735.75
10/1/2001
1329.54
23.4
Long
10/1/2001
1329.54
5/2/2002
1737.54
30.69
Short
5/2/2002
1737.54
10/1/2002
1345.69
22.55
Long
10/1/2002
1345.69
3/11/2003
1209.15
-10.15
Short
5/2/2003
1278.53
6/5/2003
1415.91
-10.75
Long
10/1/2003
1621.06
5/3/2004
1841.39
13.59
Short
5/3/2004
1841.39
10/1/2004
1986.96
-7.91
Long
10/1/2004
1986.96
5/3/2005
2146.04
8.01
Short
5/3/2005
2146.04
7/29/2005
2360.64
-10
Long
10/3/2005
2302.03
5/2/2006
2613.87
13.55
Short
5/2/2006
2613.87
10/2/2006
2571.45
1.62
Long
10/2/2006
2571.45
5/2/2007
3395.57
32.05
Short
5/2/2007
3395.57
10/1/2007
3735.13
-10
Long
10/1/2007
3734.94
11/20/2007
3350.69
-10.29
Short
5/1/2008
3147.79
10/1/2008
2358.91
25.06
Long
10/1/2008
2358.91
10/8/2008
2123.02
-10
Short
5/1/2009
1920.28
5/6/2009
2112.31
-10
Long
10/1/2009
2672.57
5/3/2010
2974.61
11.3
Short
5/3/2010
2974.61
10/1/2010
3097.63
-4.14
Long
10/1/2010
3097.63
5/2/2011
3179.86
2.65
Short
5/2/2011
3179.86
10/3/2011
2675.16
15.87
Long
10/3/2011
2675.16
Open
Open
2.06

For long positions, there were 15 winners out of 22 trades.  For short positions, there were 12 winners out of 22 trades.  So it seems that trading the long positions from Oct to May and short positions from May to Oct gives trader a slight winning advantage.  Let’s see how this system will perform in the next 6 month.   Happy trading!

STI Sideway To Bearish Tone

US market had a bad closing last night.  Dow plunged by 243 points.  It seems like we are seeing more volatility recently.  With earnings...