Monday, October 22, 2012

The New Depression


Credit growth facilitates economic growth.  When credit is expanding consumers can now borrow more and invest more.  Increasing consumption and investment creates jobs and boost income and profits.  Credit expansion also causes asset prices to go up.  These assets include stocks and property.  As net worth of the public goes up the asset owners can now use what they own as collateral to borrow more.  This is a cycle that feeds on itself and leads to increase spending, investment, job creation and wealth.  So long as the credit keeps expanding, the party can continue.

Between mid 2008 and first quarter of 2011, the federal government expanded its debt by $4.4 trillion.  This helps to keep the economy from breaking down when private sector became incapable of repaying its debt.   Before the crisis that erupt in 2008, every time the economy slowed or crisis erupted, the Fed will take steps to encourage credit expansion and every time the economy reaccelerated.  In actual fact, all the steps that the Fed has taken simply caused the credit bubble to expand.  Eventually, this credit bubble will have to give way and the consequences will have to be bear by future generation.  The past qualitative measures put forth by the Fed have not brought much improvement in the economy.  And the austerity measures that has or in the process of being implemented in various parts of the world may be the catalyst that causes the credit bubble to burst.  When credit stops expanding, we will see a greater slow down and may eventually see the natural financial depression that should have happened back in 2008 if the Fed did not intervene with its easing measures.



For those that want to learn more about how the current measures are impacting the economy and the likely outcome of such measures, you can read up on the "The New Depression", a book written by Richard Duncan.  It gives a clear explanation of how Fiat money has impacted the economy and changed the way the world economy works.  

1 comment:

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER FOUR DOLLARS said...

It seems as if the whole half of the world is in recession.

STI Sideway To Bearish Tone

US market had a bad closing last night.  Dow plunged by 243 points.  It seems like we are seeing more volatility recently.  With earnings...