If you look at the STI index, the period from May to October has underperformed the period from October to May.
The probability of win if you buy in May and exit in October is 50%. However there were 5 periods with double digit losses. For $10,000 invested in the beginning of 1988, the account would have shrunk to $4,050.
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Exit Date | Exit Price | % Change | Account Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/3/1988 | 968.90 | 10/3/1988 | 1023.10 | 5.59 | $10559 |
| 5/2/1989 | 1266.00 | 10/2/1989 | 1375.30 | 8.63 | $11470 |
| 5/2/1990 | 1458.80 | 10/1/1990 | 1103.40 | -24.36 | $8676 |
| 5/2/1991 | 1557.20 | 10/2/1991 | 1357.00 | -12.86 | $7560 |
| 5/4/1992 | 1499.00 | 10/1/1992 | 1351.00 | -9.87 | $6814 |
| 5/3/1993 | 1783.60 | 10/1/1993 | 2015.30 | 12.99 | $7699 |
| 5/3/1994 | 2296.50 | 10/3/1994 | 2334.40 | 1.65 | $7826 |
| 5/2/1995 | 2070.10 | 10/2/1995 | 2120.00 | 2.41 | $8015 |
| 5/2/1996 | 2406.20 | 10/1/1996 | 2175.70 | -9.58 | $7247 |
| 5/2/1997 | 2004.30 | 10/1/1997 | 1954.80 | -2.47 | $7068 |
| 5/4/1998 | 1494.98 | 10/1/1998 | 938.08 | -37.25 | $4435 |
| 5/3/1999 | 1892.43 | 10/1/1999 | 2021.14 | 6.8 | $4737 |
| 5/2/2000 | 2172.01 | 10/2/2000 | 1970.93 | -9.26 | $4298 |
| 5/2/2001 | 1735.75 | 10/1/2001 | 1329.54 | -23.4 | $3292 |
| 5/2/2002 | 1737.54 | 10/1/2002 | 1345.69 | -22.55 | $2550 |
| 5/2/2003 | 1278.53 | 10/1/2003 | 1621.06 | 26.79 | $3233 |
| 5/3/2004 | 1841.39 | 10/1/2004 | 1986.96 | 7.91 | $3489 |
| 5/3/2005 | 2146.04 | 10/3/2005 | 2302.03 | 7.27 | $3743 |
| 5/2/2006 | 2613.87 | 10/2/2006 | 2571.45 | -1.62 | $3682 |
| 5/2/2007 | 3395.57 | 10/1/2007 | 3734.94 | 9.99 | $4050 |
The picture reverses if you buy in October and exit in May. The probability of win increases to 70%. For $10,000 invested in the beginning of 1988, the account would have grown to $81,283.
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Exit Date | Exit Price | % Change | Account Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3/1988 | 1023.10 | 5/2/1989 | 1266.00 | 23.74 | $12374 |
| 10/2/1989 | 1375.30 | 5/2/1990 | 1458.80 | 6.07 | $13125 |
| 10/1/1990 | 1103.40 | 5/2/1991 | 1557.20 | 41.13 | $18523 |
| 10/2/1991 | 1357.00 | 5/4/1992 | 1499.00 | 10.46 | $20461 |
| 10/1/1992 | 1351.00 | 5/3/1993 | 1783.60 | 32.02 | $27013 |
| 10/1/1993 | 2015.30 | 5/3/1994 | 2296.50 | 13.95 | $30781 |
| 10/3/1994 | 2334.40 | 5/2/1995 | 2070.10 | -11.32 | $27296 |
| 10/2/1995 | 2120.00 | 5/2/1996 | 2406.20 | 13.5 | $30982 |
| 10/1/1996 | 2175.70 | 5/2/1997 | 2004.30 | -7.88 | $28540 |
| 10/1/1997 | 1954.80 | 5/4/1998 | 1494.98 | -23.52 | $21828 |
| 10/1/1998 | 938.08 | 5/3/1999 | 1892.43 | 101.73 | $44033 |
| 10/1/1999 | 2021.14 | 5/2/2000 | 2172.01 | 7.46 | $47318 |
| 10/2/2000 | 1970.93 | 5/2/2001 | 1735.75 | -11.93 | $41673 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1329.54 | 5/2/2002 | 1737.54 | 30.69 | $54462 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1345.69 | 5/2/2003 | 1278.53 | -4.99 | $51744 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1621.06 | 5/3/2004 | 1841.39 | 13.59 | $58776 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1986.96 | 5/3/2005 | 2146.04 | 8.01 | $63484 |
| 10/3/2005 | 2302.03 | 5/2/2006 | 2613.87 | 13.55 | $72086 |
| 10/2/2006 | 2571.45 | 5/2/2007 | 3395.57 | 32.05 | $95190 |
| 10/1/2007 | 3734.94 | Open | Open | -14.61 | $81283 |
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